We determined the businesses that are most likely to be open for the holidays — and the ones that see the biggest boost in visits.
For many, the image is as indelibly “Christmas” as tinsel or trees. With most businesses closed for the holiday, one type of establishment could be relied upon for those who don’t celebrate or those who celebrate irreverently: their local Chinese restaurant.
The cliché has been parodied in A Christmas Story and by Saturday Night Live. Anyone not celebrating with family (or, in Ralphie’s case, anyone whose home-cooked meal goes horribly awry) heads out to enjoy a Chinese feast.
Anecdotally, we know that Chinese restaurants are often open and are often popular on Christmas Day. But what does the data say? We took a closer look at nearly 10,000 establishments and tracked which were most likely to be open on Christmas, noting the boosts to visits and check sizes that those establishments saw in 2023. Contrary to popular belief, Chinese restaurants were not most likely to be open — but read ahead for the full story.
Of the establishments we analyzed, about 91% of them usually open on Sundays were also open on Christmas Eve last year. The next day, the large majority of them were closed — just 15% of restaurants remained open on Christmas Day relative to day-of-week averages.
On the whole, restaurants that were open on these days saw fewer transactions than they usually did on those weekdays — but those who did visit spent more than average. The average check size was about 9% larger on Christmas Eve relative to other Sundays, and on Christmas, checks were 30% larger than the average Monday.
The increase in spending could be due to a combination of party size increases and more celebratory spending for the holiday.
On the note of spending, we also wanted to analyze the kinds of restaurants that were open on Christmas, grouped by how expensive they were. For this we used Yelp’s dollar sign ratings — one dollar sign being a very inexpensive menu, up to three or four dollar signs for most expensive. In breaking up restaurants this way, we learned that mid-tier restaurants — those with two dollar signs on Yelp’s scale — were more likely to be open on Christmas than either its cheapest or most expensive counterparts.
However, the most expensive restaurants — those with three or four dollar signs — were most likely to get a big holiday boost. On Christmas Day 2023, those pricey locations saw a 25% boost in visits and a 48% boost in check size. With special prix fixe menus being a staple of these restaurants for holiday meals, this boost is to be expected.
Now, we return to our central question — if it’s not Chinese restaurants that are most likely to be open on Christmas Day, then what types are?
The answer is a bit of a trick question, because the top two establishments (and three of the top five) are not known primarily for their food. They’re bars — dive bars (first), gastropubs (second), and lounges (fifth) are most likely to be open on Christmas Day. A surprising 80% of dives that are usually open on Mondays were open on Christmas Day 2023.
Now, if we’re strictly talking about food, then diners topped the list. (Rejoice, New Jerseyans!) They came in third overall behind dives and gastropubs, with about 64% of them open on Christmas 2023.
Here’s the full top 10:
Does anything surprise you here? For restaurants that serve a specific ethnic cuisine, Indian restaurants were actually more likely to be open than Chinese restaurants in 2023 — though not by much. And pacing right behind Chinese restaurants are Vietnamese spots.
Yes, it’s notable that Chinese restaurants come in lower on the list, with only 40% of those open on Christmas relative to same day-of-week averages. But here’s where the cliché gets it right: Chinese restaurants see the largest boost by far in visits and check size. In 2023, the average Chinese restaurant in our analysis saw more than double the tables compared to their usual Monday, and the average check was about 80% higher.
So in some ways, the legacy of A Christmas Story is alive and well. But if you’re struggling to find a table or feel like switching it up from the Chinese favorites this year, then consider a burger or the all-day breakfast at your local diner — washed down with a cold pint at the dive.
Upside analyzes hundreds of millions of restaurant transactions every year, sharing helpful insights for businesses. Hungry for more? Follow us on LinkedIn for the latest.
Dr. Weinandy is a Senior Research Economist at Upside, providing valuable insights into consumer spending behavior and macroeconomic trends for the fuel, grocery, and restaurant industries. With a Ph.D. in Applied Economics, his academic research is in digital economics and brick-and-mortar retail. He recently wrote a book on leveraging AI for business intelligence.
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